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The test of the 157.98 level occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved significantly below the zero mark, which limited the pair's downward potential. For this reason, I decided not to sell and ultimately missed a strong downward move.
It is somewhat surprising that, amid comments from Federal Reserve officials, the dollar temporarily lost ground only against the Japanese yen. As history shows, inflation can have a significant impact on the economy, affecting not only businesses but also the daily lives of citizens. This was the focus of Harker and Bowman's remarks yesterday, as they highlighted that inflation indicators are not within a normal range.
The policymakers also stressed the importance of not only monitoring current data but also analyzing it in the context of global trends. Overall, Harker and Bowman's approach reflects a proactive stance on inflation and a pause in the cycle of U.S. interest rate cuts, which will continue to support the dollar despite the recent corrections observed in the USD/JPY pair.
For today's intraday strategy, I will primarily rely on implementing Scenarios #1 and #2.
Scenario #1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today at the 158.51 entry point (green line on the chart), targeting growth toward 158.89 (thicker green line). Around 158.89, I will exit the buy trades and open sell trades in the opposite direction, expecting a reversal of 30–35 pips from the level. It is preferable to focus on further growth in the pair and buy during corrections. Important: Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just beginning to rise.
Scenario #2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY in the event of two consecutive tests of the 158.29 level when the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This will limit the pair's downward potential and trigger an upward market reversal. Expect growth toward the 158.51 and 158.89 levels.
Scenario #1: I plan to sell USD/JPY today only after breaking below the 158.29 level (red line on the chart), which will lead to a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be 157.90, where I will exit the sell trades and immediately open buy trades in the opposite direction, expecting a rebound of 20–25 pips from the level. Significant pressure on the pair is unlikely to return today. Important: Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and beginning to decline.
Scenario #2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY in the event of two consecutive tests of the 158.51 level when the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This will limit the pair's upward potential and trigger a downward market reversal. Expect a decline toward the 158.29 and 157.90 levels.
*El análisis de mercado publicado aquí tiene la finalidad de incrementar su conocimiento, más no darle instrucciones para realizar una operación.
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