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The GBP/USD pair continued its decline on Tuesday after rebounding from the resistance zone of 1.2488–1.2508. This suggests that the pair may extend its downward movement today toward the support range of 1.2363–1.2370. However, it remains within an upward trend channel, so a sharp drop is not anticipated at this stage.
The wave structure is clear: the last completed downward wave broke below the previous low, while the most recent upward wave has yet to reach the previous peak. This pattern suggests the continuation of a bearish trend. A reversal would require the pair to rise at least to 1.2569 and close confidently above this level. However, there is a discrepancy between the wave structures of the euro and the pound, meaning one of these formations will eventually be invalidated.
On Tuesday, market activity was muted due to a lack of significant economic data from both the UK and the US. The only published report from the US failed to generate interest among traders, who are reluctant to open new positions ahead of the Federal Reserve's decision later today. Market participants do not anticipate changes to monetary policy or a shift in Jerome Powell's rhetoric. However, the US dollar has been declining for three consecutive weeks, possibly due to concerns about Donald Trump's potential influence on the Federal Reserve. Historically, the dollar has weakened under Trump's leadership, and traders appear to hold a skeptical outlook on his economic policies, despite his claims of wanting to "Make America Great Again."
On the four-hour chart, GBP/USD continues to rise within a downward trend channel. A rejection from its upper boundary could lead to a reversal in favor of the dollar, pushing the pair down toward the 100.0% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.2299. However, if the pair consolidates above the channel, it could force bears out of the market entirely. Additionally, a bullish divergence is forming on the CCI indicator, but today's movement will largely depend on the market's reaction to the FOMC decision.
The latest Commitments of Traders (COT) report shows an increasingly bearish sentiment among speculative traders. The number of long positions decreased by 4,861, while short positions increased by 3,834. Bulls have steadily lost their advantage over the past few months, and the gap between short and long positions now favors bears—84,000 versus 75,000.
From a broader perspective, the pound remains under selling pressure, as COT data signals strengthening bearish positions almost every week. Over the past three months, long positions have dropped from 161,000 to 75,000, while short positions have risen from 67,000 to 84,000. This trend suggests that institutional traders are likely to continue reducing long positions or increasing shorts, as most bullish factors for the pound have already played out. While technical analysis currently indicates potential for further growth, corrective movements are also expected.
Although today's economic calendar includes only two key events, they could be pivotal for the US dollar. Market sentiment will be heavily influenced by the Federal Reserve's decision and Powell's statements during the press conference.
Selling opportunities arise if the pair consolidates below the ascending trend channel on the hourly chart. Short positions were also viable upon rejection from the 1.2488–1.2508 zone, targeting 1.2363–1.2370. On the other hand, buying opportunities may emerge if the pair rebounds from the 1.2363–1.2370 support zone, with a potential upside target at 1.2488–1.2508.
Fibonacci retracement levels are drawn from 1.3000–1.3432 on the hourly chart and from 1.2299–1.3432 on the four-hour chart.
*El análisis de mercado publicado aquí tiene la finalidad de incrementar su conocimiento, más no darle instrucciones para realizar una operación.
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