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The price test at 1.2875 occurred when the MACD indicator moved significantly below the zero line, limiting the pair's downside potential. For this reason, I did not sell the pound and stayed out of trades.
News of declining inflation in the UK and Donald Trump's introduction of 25% tariffs on car imports to the U.S. weakened the pound. Though the measure was framed as beneficial for American industry and job creation, it faced broad condemnation from the international community due to concerns about its negative effects on the global economy. This created pressure on all risk assets, pulling the pound down as well.
Today, in the first half of the day, we expect a speech by Bank of England MPC member Swati Dhingra. Traders will pay close attention to her remarks on the current state of the UK economy and the future of monetary policy, especially since there are no other economic releases from the UK today. Dhingra is expected to comment on the BoE's assessment of inflationary pressure, growth prospects, and possible future steps amid ongoing uncertainty. The market will analyze every word for hints on potential rate changes in light of yesterday's inflation slowdown.
For intraday strategy, I will focus primarily on Scenarios #1 and #2.
Scenario #1: I plan to buy the pound today at the entry point around 1.2929 (green line on the chart) with a target of 1.2961 (thicker green line on the chart). Around 1.2961, I plan to exit long positions and open shorts in the opposite direction (expecting a pullback of 30–35 pips from the level). Important: Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and starting to rise.
Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the pound if the price tests 1.2905 twice a row while the MACD is in the oversold zone. This would limit the downside potential and may lead to an upward market reversal. Targets: 1.2929 and 1.2961.
Scenario #1: I plan to sell the pound today after a breakout below 1.2905 (red line on the chart), which may lead to a sharp drop. The main target for sellers is 1.2875, where I plan to exit short positions and immediately open long positions in the opposite direction (expecting a pullback of 20–25 pips from the level). It's best to sell the pound at higher levels. Important: Before selling, ensure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and beginning to fall from it.
Scenario #2: I plan to sell the pound today if the price tests 1.2929 twice a row while the MACD is in the overbought zone. This would limit the upside potential and may lead to a reversal downward. Targets: 1.2905 and 1.2875.
*El análisis de mercado publicado aquí tiene la finalidad de incrementar su conocimiento, más no darle instrucciones para realizar una operación.
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