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The price test at 146.93 occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved far above the zero line, which limited the pair's upward potential. The second test of 146.93 coincided with the MACD entering the overbought zone, allowing Scenario #2 for selling the dollar to materialize. However, after a 30-pip drop, demand for the dollar returned, and I didn't see a sustained downward movement.
Today, weak data on Japan's current account balance was released, highlighting ongoing problems in the Japanese economy despite efforts by the government and the Bank of Japan to stimulate growth. A weak trade balance, influenced by higher energy prices and decreasing global demand, is the primary cause of the negative balance. While exports are showing some growth, they are insufficient to offset the rising cost of imports. With Trump's new import tariffs, this indicator will likely deteriorate further, putting more pressure on the Japanese economy.
The Economy Watchers Survey published today did not significantly alter the balance of forces. I am betting on the yen's continued advantage over the dollar and will look for entry points to sell USD/JPY on solid corrections.
For intraday strategy, I will focus primarily on implementing Scenarios #1 and #2.
Scenario #1:
I plan to buy USD/JPY today upon reaching the entry point near 147.90 (green line on the chart), targeting a rise to 148.48 (thicker green line). At 148.48, I will exit the long position and open a short position in the opposite direction, aiming for a 30–35 pip reversal. It is best to return to long positions during corrections or significant pullbacks in USD/JPY. Important! Before buying, ensure the MACD is above the zero line and just beginning to rise.
Scenario #2:
I also plan to buy USD/JPY today if there are two consecutive tests of 147.47 while the MACD is in the oversold area. This would limit the downside potential and trigger a reversal upward—expected targets: 147.90 and 148.48.
Scenario #1:
I will only sell USD/JPY today after a break below 147.47 (red line), which should lead to a sharp drop. The key target for sellers will be 146.81, where I plan to exit the trade and immediately open a long position (aiming for a 20–25 pip bounce). Downward pressure on the pair may return at any moment. Important! Before selling, ensure the MACD is below the zero line and beginning to decline.
Scenario #2:
I also plan to sell USD/JPY today if there are two consecutive tests of 147.90 while the MACD is in the overbought area. This would cap the pair's upward potential and trigger a reversal downward—expected targets: 147.47 and 146.81.
*El análisis de mercado publicado aquí tiene la finalidad de incrementar su conocimiento, más no darle instrucciones para realizar una operación.
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