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EUR/USD – 1H.
Hello, traders! On March 19, the European currency continued to fall for most of the day. We can even say that the fall has accelerated in recent days, which made it possible to build a second downward trend corridor with a large angle of inclination. Thus, at the moment, there is no signal on the hourly chart that the downward trend can be completed. The mood of most traders remains "bearish". Closing the euro/dollar exchange rate over the second trend corridor will allow traders to expect a reversal in favor of the euro currency and some growth in quotes. Perhaps, in the near future, traders will begin to "come to their senses", after all, the shock state cannot persist permanently. Thus, you need to wait for buy signals on all charts.
EUR/USD – 4H.
According to the 4-hour chart, the EUR/USD pair performed a consolidation under the corrective level of 100.0% (1.0779), but about halfway to the next corrective level of 127.2% (1.0582), it performed a reversal in favor of the euro and returned to the Fibo level of 100.0%. Now the rebound of quotes from this Fibo level is almost 100% - but it will work in favor of the US currency and resume the fall in the direction of the unprocessed level of 127.2%. But the closing of the pair's exchange rate above the Fibo level of 100.0% will allow traders to count on the continued growth of the euro currency in the direction of the corrective level of 76.4% (1.0948) and will be the first signal for a long time to buy. No new emerging divergences are observed in any indicator today.
EUR/USD – Daily.
As seen on the daily chart of the euro/dollar pair, the picture is identical to the 4-hour chart, since the same Fibonacci grid is in effect. Over the past 20 days, the pair has broken every conceivable record, but sooner or later any movement ends. I can't say that the current decline is already complete, but at least now the bull traders are starting to show signs of life. If the pair makes a consolidation above the Fibo level of 100.0%, it will significantly increase the probability of continuing the growth of quotes and give hope for the end of the downward trend. There are no new graphical constructions now, as the movement is too unambiguous.
EUR/USD – Weekly.
On the weekly chart, the target of 1.1600 (approximate) remains in effect. Quotes of the EUR/USD pair returned to the lower line of the "narrowing triangle". Thus, now again on the agenda is a very interesting question: will there be a rebound from this line or closure under it? More likely after such a strong fall, of course, the lights out. And on the weekly chart, this rebound will be a very strong signal to buy with the same goal – 1.1600.
Overview of fundamentals:
On March 19, the European Union and the United States did not release any economic reports. However, news continues to come from both countries. In both America and the EU, governments are working hard on packages of measures to support the economy. The US is considering providing the economy with $1 trillion, and the EU has already launched a new QE program in the amount of 750 billion euros.
News calendar for the United States and the European Union:
On March 20, important economic reports and events are again not included in the calendar of the European Union and the United States.
The information background that really interests traders is still only about the coronavirus and its spread around the planet. All the other news is practically not recognized by the traders.
COT report (Commitments of Traders):
A new COT report will be available today. Given the severe storm in the market and the fact that the report was formed on Tuesday, but it comes out with a three-day delay, the data in it may already be outdated. However, I still hope to see figures on the reduction in the total number of short positions, as well as a reduction in the number of short positions in the "Non-commercial" group. Right now, bull traders need to stay above the upward trend line on the weekly chart at all costs. Otherwise, the euro currency will be prone to a longer and stronger fall in the future of the next year. Thus, the positive figures of the new COT report, combined with the rebound on the weekly chart, may give grounds for purchases.
Forecast for EUR/USD and recommendations for traders:
The situation for the EUR/USD pair is a bit confusing. It is unclear whether the pair's fall will continue. A strong buy signal is brewing on the weekly chart. But we will be able to judge it next week when this week ends. The rebound of quotes from the 4-hour chart from the level of 100.0% (1.0779) will return bear traders to the game and will be a signal for new sales.
Terms:
"Non-commercial" - major market players: banks, hedge funds, investment funds, private, large investors.
"Commercial" - commercial enterprises, firms, banks, corporations, companies that buy currency to ensure current activities or export-import operations.
"Non-reportable positions" - small traders who do not have a significant impact on the price.
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