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Details of the economic calendar for September 1
The final data on business activity indices in the manufacturing sector in Europe, the United Kingdom, and the United States were published.
Details of statistical indicators:
Eurozone manufacturing PMI fell from 49.7 to 49.6 points, with forecast of 49.7 points.
The euro did not react upon the release since they practically coincided with the preliminary estimate.
Meanwhile, unemployment data in the euro area decreased from 6.7% to 6.6%. The previous data was revised in favor of growth from 6.6% to 6.7%, and the actual data coincided with the forecast.
For this reason, the market has ignored the decline in unemployment in the EU.
UK manufacturing PMI accelerated from 46.0 to 47.3, with forecast at 46.0.
The divergence of expectations played into the hands of the British pound. Overheated during this time, the pound rolled back locally.
US manufacturing PMI remained at the level of 52.8. Forecast expected a decline to 52.00.
During the American session, in addition to data on business activity in the manufacturing sector, weekly figures on jobless claims in the United States were published, which saw an overall increase.
Statistics details:
The volume of continuing claims for benefits increased from 1.412 million to 1.438 million.
The volume of initial claims for benefits decreased from 237,000 to 232,000.
Analysis of trading charts from September 1
The EURUSD currency pair showed local speculative interest in short positions on Thursday. As a result, the quote dropped below the parity level, almost reaching the lower limit of the sideways amplitude of 0.9900/1.0050.
The GBPUSD currency pair has been trading in a downward cycle for almost the entire week, during which the quote touched the area of the local low of 2020 at 1.1410/1.1525.
Economic calendar for September 2
Today, Eurozone producer price index will be published. The indicator is assumed to rise from 35.8% to 36.2%, which may well support the euro exchange rate during its release. It is worth noting that there are forecasts in which the index will remain at the same level of 35.8%. In this case, there will be no reaction on the market, or the euro will weaken slightly in value.
The main event of the outgoing week is considered to be the report of the United States Department of Labor, where its content is likely to have a strong impact on the market and speculators.
The unemployment rate is assumed to remain at 3.5%, while 300,000 new jobs could be created outside of agriculture, which is evidently less than 528,000 in the previous month.
This indicates a loss of recovery momentum and the appearance of signs of a deteriorating labor market.
It is worth recalling that the ADP report, published on August 31, reflected an increase in employment in the country by 132,000. However, they predicted an increase in the figure by 300,000.
The ADP report is often viewed by traders as a leading indicator of the US Department of Labor report.
Time targeting:
Europe Producer Price Index – 09:00 UTC
US Department of Labor Report – 12:30 UTC
Trading plan for EUR/USD on September 2
The convergence of the price with the lower limit of the 0.9900 flat led to an increase in the volume of long positions, which resulted in a rebound on the market. Despite the variable speculative interest, the quote is still sideways based on a downward trend. Thus, the work can be built on the basis of two tactics: a rebound or a breakdown relative to one or another control boundary.
We concretize the above:
The rebound tactic is considered by traders as a temporary strategy.
The breakdown tactic is considered the main strategy as it can indicate the subsequent course of the price.
In the case of a breakdown tactic, the most optimal approach is described below:
The upward move in the currency pair is taken into account after the price is held above the value of 1.0050. In order to filter out false touches, the quote needs to stay above the control value in the daily period.
The downward move will be relevant after holding the price below 0.9890 in the daily period. This scenario will lead to a prolongation of the trend.
Trading plan for GBP/USD on September 2
In this situation, there is an overheating of short positions in the pound sterling due to the inertial downward move, which led to its significant weakening against the dollar. The area of the 2020 low may well become a temporary support against which traders will consider a corrective move.
What is shown in the trading charts?
A candlestick chart view is graphical rectangles of white and black light, with sticks on top and bottom. When analyzing each candle in detail, you will see its characteristics of a relative period: the opening price, closing price, and maximum and minimum prices.
Horizontal levels are price coordinates, relative to which a stop or a price reversal may occur. These levels are called support and resistance in the market.
Circles and rectangles are highlighted examples where the price of the story unfolded. This color selection indicates horizontal lines that may put pressure on the quote in the future.
The up/down arrows are the reference points of the possible price direction in the future.
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