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The new meeting of the Bank of England, like the previous one, turned out to be extremely tedious for the pound. The devaluation trend has again been reactivated in the British currency, despite the fact that this time the central bank was generous to raise the rate in increments of 75 bps, which was the most significant increase in the rate since 1989.
The short-term forecast, as well as the long-term one, looks negative for the GBP/USD pair. Why will the pound continue to fall further?
The November rate hike was in line with forecasts, the tightening was rather aggressive. However, this appears to be a one-time event. The BoE has signaled that it will continue to raise rates, but will act with restraint. The rate on Thursday was raised to 3%, its movement to 5% and above is unlikely. It was a clear signal that the central bank gave the markets and thus contributed to the pound being sold.
Meanwhile, market expectations were based on an increase in the bank rate to a peak of 5.25% in 2023.
Markets now expect the UK benchmark interest rate to peak just above 4.6% next September. The message contrasts with the Federal Reserve chief's statement on Wednesday, when he signaled that US rates would peak higher than previously expected.
The central bank forecasts that inflation will reach a 40-year high of 11% in the current quarter. At the same time, politicians have warned that Britain has already entered a recession that could last two years. Markets were already under pressure after the Fed carried out another massive interest rate hike. Now it has intensified.
The economy will continue to stagnate throughout 2023 and into the first half of 2024, the central bank expects, "as high energy prices and substantially tighter financial conditions put pressure on spending."
The UK economy is currently projected to contract by 1.9% in 2023, below the August forecast of 1.2%. At the same time, unemployment is expected to increase to 4.9% compared to the previous estimate of 4.7%.
All of this is inevitably forcing traders and investors to lower their expectations of a UK interest rate peak, creating an automatic correction for the pound's decline.
The fall of the GBP/USD pair reached 2% on Thursday. It is worth noting significant downward pressure on this day compared to Wednesday, when the decision on rates was announced by the Fed.
The pound traditionally falls after the policy update of the BoE in 2022, and the November monetary event was no exception. The gloomy forecasts outlined in this month's monetary policy report echo those of August. Then, recall, the GBP/USD quote fell by 4.5%. If the November price movement repeats the August one, pound holders are likely to face losses.
In short, the forecasts of the central bank show that the UK has entered the longest recession in history, lasting eight quarters. The new MPC forecasts also suggest that the baseline now is that the tightening cycle is coming to an end.
The MPC believes that the bank rate should rise by about 50 bps more for inflation to reach the target level of 2%.
Even more alarming was the information that the central bank does not expect productivity growth and there is a risk of falling investment in business, which makes the UK a less attractive place to do business.
Amid falling growth, the unemployment rate will rise steadily to around 6.5% over three years.
Everything that was expressed by the BoE on Thursday does not promise anything good for the pound's prospects in both the short and long term.
Thus, the GBP/USD quote is highly likely to win back the first target of the decline at the level of 1.1000. Then the pair will hit new lows. By the end of the first quarter, its rate will fall to 1.0600, according to Wells Fargo.
The combination of a protracted economic recession and the inertia of the central bank, which does not justify market expectations on rates, are the key factors behind the resumption of the GBP/USD devaluation trend, economists believe.
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