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02.11.202110:08 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Gold steady as investors await Fed policy decision

Over the next two days, investors' attention will be focused on the Fed meeting, where its future direction could become clearer. The gold market is feeling more nervous on the eve of the meeting.

One of the most discussed themes among analysts lately has been the forthcoming US Federal Reserve meeting, which will take place on November 2-3.

On the eve of the big event, experts tried to predict further action by the US regulator. They are interested in how it will deal with rising inflationary pressures and fears of weaker economic growth.

Amid growing uncertainty over the Fed's future course, the dollar is mixed these days. After Friday's 0.8% surge, the US currency index fell 0.3% earlier this week. And this morning the greenback is back up 0.1% against its main competitors.

Gold is also uncertain ahead of the Fed meeting. After falling sharply by 1% in Friday's trading on Monday, the asset quickly picked up.

Yesterday, quotes rose thanks to a decline in the greenback and weaker-than-expected economic data. On November 1, the US manufacturing purchasing managers' index was published. It fell to 60.8 last month from September's 61.1 points.

After receiving support, the precious metal jumped 0.7%, or $11.90. The bullion ended the session at $1,795.80 on COMEX.

Meanwhile, silver also rose in value. The asset gained 0.5%, or 12 cents, on Monday, closing at $24.073 an ounce.

Both precious metals also reversed direction on Tuesday morning after the dollar turned higher. Gold futures fell 0.2% to $1,791.80 and silver dropped 0.4% to $23.93.

Analysts believe that until the US Federal Reserve announces its decision to reduce asset purchases, investors will be cautious about precious metals. Therefore, prices will remain in a tight range and will continue to trade near the key $1,800 level, oscillating between a decline and an upturn.

Meanwhile, most experts believe that the US regulator will announce the start of a tapering of asset purchase programme at the meeting.

The central bank's concerns over inflation indicate this. Ongoing supply problems and high energy costs are likely to provoke a more protracted rise in consumer prices than previously expected. Such a prospect should prompt the Fed to tighten its monetary policy, according to analyst Ricardo Evangelista.

She stresses that if the regulator chooses this scenario, it will push the dollar up, while the value of precious metals, due to the inverse correlation to the dollar, will conversely move downwards.

"Provided US 10-year yields continue to trade around current levels, suggesting a weaker growth outlook in bondholders' minds, gold could remain supported," Stephen Innes said. As a reminder, not long ago the indicator retreated from a multi-month high of around 1.7%, which was reached in October. It is now holding above 1.5%.

The catalyst for a boost in US bond yields could be a rise in interest rates. However, Innes suggests that central banks are unlikely to start an aggressive rate hike campaign given weaker economic data such as the Institute for Supply Management survey on Monday that showed US manufacturing activity had slowed last month.

Аlena Ivannitskaya,
Analytical expert of InstaSpot
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