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24.11.202112:06 Forex Analysis & Reviews: The idea of a strong dollar clouds the mind

Market players are so carried away by purchases of the US currency that they do not want to notice what is happening around, for example, that the ECB hawks have revived. The alternatives are not interesting – only the almighty dollar. In the field of view of investors are exclusively factors contributing to the growth of the greenback. Markets continue to rely on the Fed's first rate hike next year and a stronger than predicted acceleration of inflation in the country.

It would seem that the minutes of the last meeting of the American Central Bank can say anything new. However, even the "minutes" exit factor encourages traders to buy greenbacks, as they expect to see an increase in hawkish sentiment in the protocols.

The growth of dollar yields also plays a role in the dollar rally but is not a priority. The same pandemic factor is perceived by investors more seriously, besides, the increase in dollar yields is not so solid as to compensate for the differential of real rates in favor of the dollar.

Due to high inflation in the United States, the differential of real rates is about 1% in favor of the euro and more than 5% in favor of the yen. They do not want to notice such facts in the markets yet, traders prefer to focus on the growth of nominal dollar profitability. This may continue until the moment when an increase in nominal yields will make the greenback fundamentally attractive against the euro in terms of real yield parity. If the growth trend of the US currency continues at the same time, the euro risks breaking away from another fundamental indicator – purchasing power parity.

Meanwhile, the threat of lockdown is now looming over the Old World. Markets sought to withdraw into protective assets, in particular the dollar, after the announcement of a national quarantine in Austria. What if Germany resorts to such measures? This is more serious, and the reaction may be stronger.

It is worth noting that now speculators are winning back even the slightest positive for the US currency. It can be seen that the growth of the dollar is overripe, the technical picture also indicates it is oversold. We need a pause to look around, carefully study the situation and analyze the facts. Correction is quite possible, it may be sharp and deep enough. In other words, the US currency index may sink to the area of 93.50 or even to 92.50. In the coming sessions, the "American" will be at the point of choosing a scenario: up or down.

If, after all, the idea of a strong dollar wins, then technical overbought will be automatically removed, and the US currency will continue to develop a rally to new highs. The rise of the dollar in this scenario should be accompanied, as analysts predict, by a decline in the entire commodities market, including precious metals. The 100 mark on the index will appear on the horizon. The EUR/USD pair, respectively, will fall into the area of 1,1000 or even lower.

Speaking about the prospects for a more foreseeable future, that is, today, the American session may become hot. A portion of economic data is coming out: US GDP data for the third quarter, orders for durable goods, the basic PCE price index, and FOMC "minutes".

If traders see a positive for the dollar again, the bulls of the EUR/USD pair will have to retreat to the area of 1.1200-1.1210.

The resistance is at the level of 1.1250, 1.1300, 1.1330. The euro will have a chance to recover after the 1.1300 level is broken. Support is located at 1.1240, 1.1200, and 1.1140.

Key currencies on Wednesday were supported by a decline in the yield of 10-year US bonds. The main focus is on the data. If the market shows a sluggish reaction, the euro will have difficulty finding a direction.

Natalya Andreeva,
Analytical expert of InstaSpot
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