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14.12.202223:45 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Indian rupee narrows the gap with the dollar

This week, the Indian rupee is showing its best performance against the dollar in more than a month. Forward premiums are also rising. This growth was made possible by inflation data from the U.S., which increased the chances that the Federal Reserve might take a less aggressive tone.

The Indian rupee is closing the gap with the dollar

On Tuesday, the rupee was trading at 82.46 against the dollar, up from 82.8050 on Monday. The local currency then rose to nearly 82.40 during the session, its highest since Nov. 11, possibly due to an influx of investment in the region.

Funding in particular took place in the private sector. Several private investors bought a stake in a commercial bank. As for the Fed's policy review, representatives of the Reserve Bank of India say that the focus will be on the wording.

So far, the data support bets that the Fed will soften the pace of rate hikes. These rumors have already prompted investors to lower their expectations for the terminal rate by about 20 basis points.

The Fed is expected to reduce the size of the rate hike to 50 basis points after four consecutive hikes of 75 basis points.

In contrast, the dollar index and Treasury yields fell, compounding Tuesday's losses. The 2-year U.S. Treasury bond yield is now at 4.18%, 60 basis points below its high since the beginning of the year. The dollar index is now below 104, well below this year's peak of 114.78.

Tracking the drop in Treasury bond yields, USD/INR forward premiums have risen. The implied annualized yield rose to nearly 1.94%, about 35 basis points higher than the last six sessions.

Egor Danilov,
Analytical expert of InstaSpot
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