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On Wednesday, the EUR/USD pair rebounded from the corrective level of 50.0% (1.0932) and rose to the 38.2% Fibonacci level at 1.0982. Returning from this level would favor the American currency and lead to a new decline towards the levels of 1.0932 and 1.0883. If the pair's rate holds above the level of 1.0982, it increases the likelihood of further growth towards the next corrective level of 23.6% (1.1041). The horizontal movement of the pair persists until closing above 1.0982.
The wave situation remains unchanged. The latest downward wave has ended exactly where the previous one did (around 1.0890). Thus, there has been a break of the low from December 15th, but the price only updated it by a few points, which is insufficient to declare a trend change to "bearish." The new upward wave is relatively weak and has yet to have the opportunity to break the peak from December 28th. However, this fact does not indicate the end of the "bullish" trend. Another downward wave is needed, one that confidently breaks the low from January 5th. Until then, horizontal movement and the "bullish" trend remain intact.
The information background on Wednesday could have been stronger. ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos mentioned that inflation in 2024 will decrease more slowly than in 2023, but this information did not affect trader sentiment. De Guindos' speech did not clarify when the ECB plans to start tapering its asset purchase program, which is currently the most pressing concern for traders. Recall that some members of the ECB Governing Council have hinted at the first rate cut no earlier than the summer. The market seems content with this state of affairs. Still, at the same time, it expects the Fed to transition to a more accommodative policy sooner, slowing the strengthening of the dollar and even casting doubt on its further rise.
On the 4-hour chart, the pair reversed in favor of the European currency and closed above the Fibonacci level of 61.8% (1.0959). The pair did not even come close to the lower boundary of the ascending trend corridor, which signifies the continuation of the "bullish" sentiment in the market without alternatives. I will await a significant decline in the euro only after the quotes are firmly entrenched below the corridor. In the near future, the euro may show growth towards the corrective level of 76.4% (1.1081), especially if it breaks out of the horizontal corridor on the hourly chart.
Commitments of Traders (COT) report:
During the last reporting week, speculators opened 717 long contracts and closed 1368 short contracts. The sentiment of large traders remains "bullish" and is weakening overall. The total number of long contracts speculators hold is 212 thousand, while short contracts total only 92 thousand. Despite the significant gap, the situation will shift toward the bears. Bulls have dominated the market for too long, and now they need a strong information background to sustain the "bullish" trend. I do not see such a backdrop at the moment. Professional traders may resume closing long positions soon. The current figures allow for a resumption of the euro's decline in the coming months.
Economic Calendar for the US and the Eurozone:
US - Consumer Price Index (13:30 UTC).
US - Initial and Continuing Jobless Claims (13:30 UTC).
On January 11th, the economic events calendar includes two entries, one of which is very important. Therefore, the impact of the information background on trader sentiment today may be of moderate strength.
EUR/USD Forecast and Trader Tips:
Selling the pair may be considered today in case of a retreat from the level of 1.0982 on the hourly chart, targeting 1.0932 and 1.0883. Buying opportunities can be contemplated if the pair closes above the level of 1.0982 on the hourly chart, targeting 1.1041.
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