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On the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair experienced a decline to the support zone of 1.2584–1.2611 on Wednesday, bounced off it, reversed in favor of the British pound, and began to rise towards the corrective level of 61.8% (1.2715). A rebound from this level will once again favor the American currency and lead to a return to the zone of 1.2584–1.2611. If the quotes stay above the level of 1.2715, the likelihood of an upward movement towards the resistance zone of 1.2788–1.281 will increase. Horizontal movement persists, and neither the bulls nor the bears have the upper hand.
The situation with the waves needs to be clarified. Trends are quite short-term, and often we see single waves. The "bullish" sentiment among traders persists due to the absence of a decline in the British pound. The last downward wave failed to break the level of 1.2611, near which the lows of all previous waves are located. Similarly, the last upward wave failed to break the important zone of 1.2788–1.281 for the "bullish" trend to develop. Thus, the sideways trend continues until the pair exits the range of 1.2584–1.2801.
The news background on Wednesday was very important for the British pound, and this factor kept the bears from further selling, which could have ended the month-long sideways trend. Inflation in the UK accelerated in December, while core inflation remained unchanged. I would not rush to make loud conclusions about the end of the inflation slowdown, as it's just one month. However, traders immediately assumed that the Bank of England would keep interest rates higher than expected. This factor supported the bullish traders, and the pound again failed to break out of the horizontal movement.
Today, in the UK, the calendar is empty. Horizontal movement is likely to persist.
On the 4-hour chart, the pair rebounded from the level of 1.2620 and reversed in favor of the British pound. This rebound suggests an expectation of a rise to the Fibonacci level of 61.8% (1.2745). On the 4-hour chart, horizontal movement between the levels of 1.2620 and 1.2745 is visible. No imminent divergences are observed among any of the indicators today, and the quotes have left behind the ascending trend corridor. The trend may continue to shift towards "bearish," but this will take time and require significant efforts from the bears, especially the closure below the level of 1.2620.
Commitments of Traders (COT) report:
During the last reporting week, the sentiment of the "non-commercial" category of traders changed in favor of the bulls. The number of long contracts held by speculators decreased by 1110 units, while the number of short contracts decreased by 6639. The overall sentiment of major players shifted towards "bearish" a few months ago, but at the moment, bulls have a slight advantage. There is a gap between the number of long and short contracts: 60,000 versus 39,000, but the gap is small and hardly widening.
The British pound still has excellent prospects for a decline. Over time, the bulls will continue to get rid of Buy positions, as all possible factors for buying the British pound have already been exhausted. The growth we have seen in the last three months is corrective. For over a month now, the bulls have been unable to push through the level of 1.2745.
News calendar for the US and the UK:
US - Building Permits (13:30 UTC).
US - Housing Starts (13:30 UTC).
US - Initial Jobless Claims (13:30 UTC).
On Thursday, the economic calendar includes three moderately important reports in the US. The impact of the news on market sentiment for the remainder of the day will be weak.
GBP/USD forecast and trading recommendations:
Sales of the British pound were possible around the zone of 1.2788-1.2801 on the hourly chart with a target of 1.2611. This target has been reached. New sales can be considered in case of a rebound from the level of 1.2715 with a target of 1.2611. Purchases of the British pound were possible in case of a rebound from the zone of 1.2584-1.2611 with a target of 1.2715. These trades can still be kept open.
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