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On the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair continued its upward movement on Thursday after rebounding from the support zone of 1.2584–1.2611 on Wednesday. Today, the rebound from the Fibonacci level of 61.8% (1.2715) will favor the US currency and a resumption of the decline towards the zone of 1.2584–1.2611. If the pair manages to hold above the level of 1.2715, it will increase the chances of further growth towards the resistance zone of 1.2788–1.2801. The British pound remains in a sideways trend, with neither the bulls nor the bears having the upper hand.
The wave situation remains very ambiguous. Trends are quite short-term, and we often see single waves. The "bullish" sentiment among traders persists due to the absence of the pound falling below the level of 1.2584. The last downward wave once again failed to break the level of 1.2611, around which the lows of all previous waves are located. Similarly, the last upward wave also failed to break the important zone of 1.2788–1.2801 for the "bullish" trend to develop. Thus, the sideways movement continues and will remain in place until the pair exits the range of 1.2584–1.2801.
The information background on Thursday was very weak for both the British pound and the US dollar. American reports on unemployment claims and the housing market could have provided support for bearish traders, but the graphic picture is currently more important for traders. The pound is trading according to the textbook, moving from one boundary of the horizontal corridor to the other. The information background does not allow traders to break out of the range of 1.2584–1.2801. Therefore, I see no reason to analyze the less important reports that have had no impact on traders.
Today, in the UK and the US, there will be a few more reports, but the pound is unlikely to break out of the sideways trend today.
On the 4-hour chart, the pair has rebounded again from the level of 1.2620 and reversed in favor of the British pound. This rebound allows us to expect growth towards the Fibonacci level of 61.8% (1.2745). On the 4-hour chart, the horizontal movement between the levels of 1.2620 and 1.2745 is visible. There are no imminent divergences observed with any of the indicators today, and the ascending trend corridor has been abandoned. The trend may continue to shift towards the "bearish" side, but it will take time and require significant efforts from the bears, especially the closure below the level of 1.2620.
Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:
The sentiment of the "Non-commercial" trader category has shifted in favor of the bulls over the past reporting week. The number of long contracts held by speculators decreased by 1110 units, while the number of short contracts decreased by 6639 units. The overall sentiment of large players shifted to "bearish" a few months ago, but at the moment, the bulls have a slight advantage. There is a gap between the number of long and short contracts: 60 thousand versus 39 thousand, but the gap is small and almost not increasing.
In my opinion, there are excellent prospects for the pound to fall. I believe that over time, the bulls will continue to get rid of their buy positions, as all possible factors for buying the British pound have already been exhausted. The recent rise we have seen over the past three months, in my opinion, is corrective. For over a month now, the bulls have been unable to push the level of 1.2745.
Economic Calendar for the US and the UK:
UK - Retail Sales (07:00 UTC).
US - Existing Home Sales (15:00 UTC).
US - University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (15:00 UTC).
On Friday, the economic calendar contains three reports of moderate significance. The impact of the information background on market sentiment for the remaining part of the day will be weak.
Forecast for GBP/USD and trading recommendations:
Selling the pound today is possible in case of a rebound from the level of 1.2715 on the hourly chart with a target of 1.2611. Buying the pound was possible after the rebound from the zone of 1.2584–1.2611 with a target of 1.2715. This target has been achieved. Today, buying with a target of 1.2788 – 1.2801 is possible if the price closes above the level of 1.2715.
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